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Shale gas to drive Chinese gas output growth to 2025

by Erika Green

Production of shale gas in China is forecasted to rise 400 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) through to 2025, Rystad Energy said on Wednesday.

According to consulting firm, China’s shale gas output is predicted to add 400 Mmcf/d to China’s total gas production over the next five years. This will be primarily derived from its Longmaxi shale projects, including the Fuling gas field and the Changning-Weiyuan block in the Sichuan Basin, Kallanish Energy learns.

Chinese total gas production peaked at 16.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019. This figure is expected to increase between 2020 and 2025, driven by increased unconventional gas production — shale gas, tight gas and coalbed methane — while conventional gas production is set to remain flat.

Overall gas production is forecast to reach 17.2 Bcf/d during 2020 and continue growing by approximately 4% year-on-year, climbing to 19.6 Bcf/d by 2025, according to Rystad data.

Rystad highlighted that the unconventional projects that are under development and unsanctioned discoveries will offset decreasing investments in conventional gas sources that are now approaching production plateaus.

The Weiyuan and Weirong shale gas, and Fuling shale are expected to record continued growth in spending in 2020, with total investments projected to reach $12.5 billion by 2025.

Tight gas, which is trapped within a rock with extremely low permeability such as limestone or sandstone, will also play a significant role over the next five years.

“Among tight gas projects, Changqing will drive future output growth with the Sulige field boosting gas supply by 350 Mmcf/d as soon as 2020,” Rystad said. “Post 2020, tight gas additions are set to remain relatively stable with about 50 Mmcf/d of growth per year on average up to 2025.”

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