Crude oil production from the top seven U.S. shale plays will fall in December 118,000 barrels per day (BPD) from November’s projection, to 4.95 million BPD (MMBPD) — the biggest monthly drop since May, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports.
The projected aggregate decline in crude production from the seven plays has been below 100,000 BPD in the previous eight, according to the EIA’s monthly Drilling Productivity Reports.
EIA projected last April the U.S.’ multi-year surge in crude output that has contributed to global excess the past 18 months would begin to reverse in May, Kallanish Energy finds.
| Play | November 2015 | December 2015 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bakken | 1.14 | 1.11 | (27,000) |
| Eagle Ford | 1.36 | 1.28 | (78,000) |
| Haynesville | 54,000 | 53,000 | (1,000) |
| Marcellus | 53,000 | 51,000 | (2,000) |
| Niobrara | 378,000 | 356,000 | (22,000) |
| Permian | 2.01 | 2.02 | 11,000 |
| Utica | 79,000 | 80,000 | 1,000 |
| TOTAL | 5.07 | 4.95 | (118,000) |
Five of the seven plays are projected by EIA to produce reduced barrels from November to December, with the remaining two only increasing 11 BPD (Permian Basin), and 1 BPD (Utica Shale).
The play projected to show the largest reduction in December is the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas — 78,000 BPD, for total production there of 1.28 MMBPD. That compares with a loss of 71,000 NPD forecast for November one month ago.
Production in the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana is forecast to fall by 27,000 BPD in December, to 1.11 MMBPD, compared to a projection of 23,000 BPD this month.
In the Niobara Shale of Colorado/Wyoming, EIA projects crude production will fall by 22,000 BPD in December, to 356,000 BPD. For November, a 20,000 BPD drop was predicted last month.
In total, the seven US shale plays accounted for 95% of US crude oil production during 2011-2013. The plays include the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Niobrara, Utica, Marcellus and Permian.
