Total OPEC crude oil production is expected to increase by 0.2 million barrels per day (MMBPD) in 2017, and by 0.5 MMBPD in 2018, the Energy Information Administration reports in its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Crude oil production in the Lower 48 States is to average 6.88 MMBPD in 2017, and 7.29 MMBPD in 2018, which are 70,000 BPD and 310,000 BPD higher, respectively, than in the previous STEO.
The higher forecast reflects slightly higher forecast oil prices and higher rig efficiencies, Kallanish Energy understands. Based on revised assumptions related to the decline rates of producing fields and to projections related to announced discoveries, Gulf of Mexico crude oil production is expected to average 1.63 MMBPD in 2017, 100,000 BPD lower than previously expected.
The 2018 Gulf of Mexico crude oil production forecast of 1.77 MMBPD in 2018 is down 90,000 BPD from the previous forecast, EIA/STEO stated.
“The net result of these changes is that EIA expects total U.S. crude oil production to average 8.98 MMBPD in 2017, and 9.53 MMBPD in 2018, levels that are 20,000 BPD lower and 230,000 BPD higher, respectively, than previously forecast,” EIA said.
Recent estimates of production from Libya, which isn’t subject to a production target under the 2016 OPEC production cut agreement, average roughly 0.7 million barrels per day (MMBPD) in January, the country’s highest production level since 2014.
“Saudi Arabia recently announced it is meeting its production target, and the country is estimated to have produced slightly less than 10.0 MMBPD in January,” STEO stated.
U.S. crude oil production is expected to increase by 0.1 MMBPD in 2017 year-over-year, and by 0.5 MMBPD in 2018.
The U.S. oil-directed rig count increased by 41 rigs in January, the eighth consecutive monthly increase and the first year-over-year increase since December 2014, according to oilfield services firm Baker Hughes.
