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BP eyes 10 FIDs by 2021, reviews exploration approach

by Erika Green

British oil supermajor BP has roughly 10 new projects in the pipeline expected to receive a final investment decision (FID) by 2021, potentially adding 900,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day (Boe/d) to its portfolio, Kallanish Energy reports.

CEO Bob Dudley said Tuesday during an earnings call these undisclosed projects are located from the Gulf of Mexico to Angola, from Egypt to Australia. The company could sanction around “four to five in 2020, and seven to eight (projects) in 2021,” Dudley said.

Last year, BP made a FID on five projects and started production on five others. The upcoming investments are set to have 35% greater cash margins and 20% lower development costs than the 2015 base.

The conference call message, however, emphasized the company’s focus on “value over volume.”

Announcing a reserve replacement rate of 57% in 2019, compared to an average of 97% in previous years, Dudley said the replacement strategy is changing going forward. Around 2025, new projects should add reserves in gas and advantage oil, he added.

But the company is characterizing its exploration risks and “is steadily reducing exploration now for a couple of years, focusing where we already have facilities,” Dudley told analysts.

For 2020, BP expects its total oil and gas production to be lower than last year due to roughly 200,000-250,000 Bpd capacity disposals, lower activity in the Haynesville Shale in the U.S., and lower volumes from Trinidad and Tobago operations. The estimated volume is also to be negatively impacted by the one-year delay in the Raven project in Egypt, due to corrosion issues on installations.

Total oil and gas output, including Rosneft, was up 2.7% last year, averaging 3.78 Mmboe/d. (See related story.)

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